NHL free-agent deep dive: Analyzing the top centers available on the market (2024)

Free-agency season is upon us, and so it’s time to look at the numbers behind the names.

The venerable Chris Johnston went through the top 50 names on the board last week. Now we’re going to dig a little deeper into how good each player is projected to be, how he’s expected to age, and most importantly, how much he should be paid.

I created a basic guide to how much players should be generally paid based on role earlier in the week, but each case obviously demands more specificity. No two players are equal. That’s what these breakdowns are all about, with a look at the top free agents’ projected Net Rating and what their salary should be because of it.

Net Rating is far from infallible, but it’s a strong starting point for figuring out what to make of this year’s free-agency class.

For easier comparison (and comprehension), I’ve created four lists separated by position. Below you’ll find the top centers available this summer.

Sam Reinhart

Look, we know Sam Reinhart almost exclusively plays wing now, but have you seen the rest of the centers available? Someone had to headline this list and it might as well be the belle of the free agency ball who can slot in at center if needed. That’s good enough for us.

With 57 goals and 94 points, Reinhart hit career highs while playing Selke-caliber defense against the toughest opponents every night next to Aleksander Barkov. Reinhart can do it all and that’s going to make him incredibly expensive to sign, but he should be worth it. He is expected to net $10.9 million on a seven-year deal according to Evolving Hockey, right on the money with our valuation.

That would’ve been a shocking figure last summer after a 31-goal, 67-point campaign — just as shocking as Reinhart doing what he did in 2023-24. Neither represents his “true talent” and our $11 million estimation is an expectation borne out of the midpoint.

Over the last two seasons, he’s scored at a 44-goal and 81-point pace which is close to the production he’s projected for next season. And while his goal total fluctuated wildly over the last two seasons, his expected goal totals, 39 and 42, were fairly consistent. Combined, Reinhart is top 10 in the league in creating chances over the last two seasons.

A lot of that may come from the power play, but there may not be many better bumper/net-front players in the league. Those saying he won’t score on 34 percent of his shots again should note that in his previous three seasons, he scored on 29 percent of them (though at a much lower volume).

If that’s all Reinhart was though, he wouldn’t be worth the mega-money deal. It’s his defensive upside that should add an extra few million to his bank account.

Going back to his second season, Reinhart has always been a very consistent play-driver. Aside from one down year in 2019-20, his teams have earned between 0.2 and 0.5 more expected goals per 60 with him on the ice. Every year. He’s been incredibly consistent and, over the last four years, a lot of it has stemmed from off-puck play. In that time frame, his teams have surrendered 0.31 fewer expected goals against per 60 with him on the ice. That’s the third-best mark among forwards and first among top-six forwards. Patrice Bergeron, for context, is at 0.28.

Reinhart is the full package, but the Panthers Effect does give room for pause. I do believe I’ve accounted for his quality of teammates enough to mitigate concern. But at any rate, it is fair to question whether he would score this much on a different power play or defend this well away from Barkov. Especially as a team’s focal point.

In Florida, he’s the team’s third-best forward. At $11 million on a different team, he would have loftier expectations as The Guy. Are those shoes that Reinhart can fill?

Steven Stamkos

Should Steven Stamkos take a hometown discount? That’s a good question and it depends on the meaning of “discount.”

Right off the bat, he’s not an $8 million player anymore. His market value via Evolving Hockey should already come with a discount. Stamkos’ point production is on par with Reinhart’s above, but there’s more to hockey than points and that “more” has been lacking in Stamkos’ game in recent seasons. It’s probably why Tampa Bay has been so apprehensive about re-signing its captain.

Stamkos remains one of the league’s better offensive players with a plus-10 Offensive Rating, but his minus-1 Defensive Rating is a lot closer to the bottom, which pushes him into the $7 million range. That’s still top-line caliber, but on the lower end where Stamkos is better suited with some second-line shelter on a contender. This past season was arguably the worst defensive year of his career — he was on the ice for 2.88 expected goals against per 60 (0.27 more than teammates) and 3.51 goals against per 60 (0.49 more than teammates). That led to the Lightning being outchanced and outscored with Stamkos on the ice for the first time since his rookie season.

Being an empty-calorie scorer has value, especially with how lethal Stamkos is on the power play. It’s just not value commensurate with what his point totals might indicate. A 40-goal, point-per-game player might be worth $8-9 million, but that’s too much for a player who doesn’t do a whole lot else.

So if the discount is on $8 million and he gets $7 million instead, it’s just Stamkos getting what he deserves. That’s fine. For a true discount though, he needs to be closer to $6 million — or less.

Elias Lindholm

Finally, we get to the first real center — and it’s a doozy. There is no free-agent question more fascinating than “What is Elias Lindholm going to get?” As you can see from the chart above, the answer is very likely “a lot more than he deserves.”

Evolving Hockey’s projection on a seven-year deal is right in line with what’s been rumored all year: $8 million. No thanks.

That’s top-line-center money and I don’t believe Lindholm is of that caliber anymore. He certainly used to be, but a precipitous decline in a contract year feels like a giant red flag. That it’s his second straight year of decline after losing Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau as linemates makes that flag so scarlet it might as well be maroon.

There were a lot of questions that year regarding how much Lindholm was benefitting from playing with his all-world linemates, and in the years since, we got our answer. He scored 64 points the following season, but saw his five-on-five impact drop to below average. In 2023-24, he fell off a cliff entirely. He scored 44 points in 75 games, earned just 45 percent of the expected goals, and had an expected goal impact of minus-0.51 relative to teammates. That was the 22nd-worst mark in the league and played a role in his middling Net Rating of plus-0.6. That’s way down from plus-9.2 the season prior and plus-19.6 before that.

That’s an extremely erratic trajectory that makes it difficult to pinpoint what Lindholm is and can still be. Lindholm’s current projection of plus-6 suggests he isn’t nearly as poor as he was last season, but that the heights of previous years might also be unrealistic. That doesn’t mean he can’t get there, especially in a favorable situation with strong linemates like the one he had two seasons ago. But that’s probably not someone you pay $8 million or even $7 million. Especially with a lengthy term for a 29-year-old.

Lindholm has some defensive upside and can be a decent complementary player, but he’s not a play-driver with the puck. He’s not very involved in the neutral zone and struggled last year to create scoring chances, finishing below the 40th percentile in chances and chance assists per 60 according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder.

Lindholm is a solid player, but the numbers being lobbied for him seem completely out of touch with the player he currently is. Anything over $6 million is probably too much.

Matt duch*ene

Last year I called Matt duch*ene the top free agent available, a bold post-buyout claim that said more about the talent available than duch*ene himself. Still, he lived up to his end of the bargainin Dallas, scoring 65 points while earning 60 percent of the goals at five-on-five. duch*ene helped reignite both Mason Marchment’s and Tyler Seguin’s games, creating an exceptional middle-six line that few others could stack up against. duch*ene finished the year with a Net Rating of plus-7.3 — almost exactly where he was projected to land. He was a difference-maker.

That was the key for duch*ene: He may not have been a top-line center anymore, but he could still thrive driving a secondary scoring line. That’s exactly what he did in Dallas where he was a dual threat in zone, finishing above the 80th percentile for both chances and chance assists per 60. A lot of that came from his ability to generate off the rush, where he was among the league’s most prolific players at entering the zone with control, doing so 74 percent of the time at a very high volume. Even at 33, he’s still got his fastball (and interestingly enough, his top speed and speed-burst ability both improved in Dallas).

How much is all that worth now? For a player of his age, it all depends on term. On a short-term deal, which is likely what duch*ene will get, something in the ballpark of $5.5-6 million is fair. That’s where Evolving Hockey has him on a two-year deal, though given he’s still cashing checks from the Nashville Predators, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take less for the right situation.

duch*ene is still a helluva player who can add a quick offensive spark to a team’s second line. That was true when he was bought out and remains true today.

Sean Monahan

Shoutout to Sean Monahan who was so overpaid two summers ago that the Calgary Flames needed to attach a first-round pick to offload his exorbitant cap hit. That $6.375 million cap hit apparently isn’t far off his current going rate according to Evolving Hockey. They’re pegging him at $5.3 for three years and right around $6 million if he gets a four- or five-year deal instead.

Considering how dire the center market is, it’s possible Monahan does get that, and he deserves kudos for rebuilding his value up to that level.

I’m not as high on Monahan, but he certainly looks to be top-six caliber right now with the capability of scoring 55 points. A lot will depend on how much power-play usage he gets on his new team, but even aside from that, he’s scored around 1.85 points per 60 since leaving Calgary. That’s firmly top-six level.

The issue with Monahan always comes down to where he fits. Though he has become better at creating chances, he is still a complementary player who needs some help driving offense. Getting that help usually means playing higher in the lineup where he struggles defensively. He can hold his own lower in the lineup, but it’s hard for him to create in that role. The Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens were good fits for his ability, but a strong fit elsewhere may not be as easy to find.

Monahan can be useful on a sheltered scoring line or as a complementary player on a line with stars. But anything more than $5 million for that service is probably pushing it.

Chandler Stephenson

There may not be a center available with more red flags attached to him than Chandler Stephenson. If the 30-year-old center really does get over $6 million as Evolving Hockey is forecasting, my condolences go out to the fans of that franchise. The model has him worth closer to $4 million — even less if he doesn’t get top power-play time.

Stephenson’s claim to fame is that he is very fast, a skill set he parlayed toward becoming one of the NHL’s best zone entry players. In 2022-23, his 78 percent controlled entry rate was among the league’s very best.

This year, he created two fewer entries per 60 and also entered with control just 56 percent of the time. It’s a big step back that’s likely a partial factor of reduced foot speed. Thanks to NHL Edge tracking data, we know that three seasons ago, Stephenson’s top speed was 23.3 miles per hour and he had 330 speed bursts above 20 miles per hour. Last season, that dropped to 22.4 and 217 respectively. Still fast, but clearly losing a step.

That’s to be expected of a 30-year-old, but the issue is his game hasn’t adapted. On a strong Vegas team, Stephenson managed only 46 percent of the expected goals last season and 49 percent of the goals. Both were among the worst marks on the team with much of the issue stemming from defensive inability. The Golden Knights allowed 0.58 more expected goals against per 60 with Stephenson on the ice this season.

Offensively, his scoring also took a big hit, with his five-on-five points per 60 dropping from 2.34 in 2022-23 to 1.66 last season. That his scoring-chance assist rate dropped heavily from 4.7 (93rd percentile) to 2.3 (38th percentile) last season is troubling.

The biggest reason to be a Stephenson skeptic, though, is the Mark Stone of it all. Since arriving in Vegas, the duo has shared the ice a lot — to only Stephenson’s benefit. Over the last three years, the duo has played 1,370 minutes together, earning 57 percent of the goals and 52 percent of the expected goals. In 1,875 minutes without Stone, Stephenson is at 50 percent and 48 percent. In 496 minutes without Stephenson, Stone is at 60 percent in both goals and expected goals. His numbers go down next to Stephenson, with the most sizeable drop this past season. Stone had some of the worst on-ice numbers of his career and they were entirely in the minutes shared with Stephenson.

All of this might just be a down year for Stephenson who was legitimately great in 2022-23, especially in the playoffs. But the issues under the hood, the drop in foot speed and the numbers without Stone all point to a player who will likely struggle to live up to a big-money deal outside of Vegas. Unless he’s put in another extremely advantageous role, he’s closer to average than a bona fide top-six center.

Adam Henrique

Adam Henrique’s game is far from inspiring. According to Sznajder’s tracking data, he doesn’t contribute much with the puck entering the zone, he isn’t an effective forechecker, and he’s shockingly uninvolved in creating chances. His 5.5 scoring chance contributions per 60 last year was well below average.

But dammit, he gets results.

Henrique was on for 55 percent of the goals last season and scored 1.86 points per 60 at five-on-five. It was his fifth straight year above 1.8 and in each of those years, the Anaheim Ducks were close to break-even in goals. The Ducks! It doesn’t make much sense watching Henrique play — and Oilers fans haven’t been too thrilled about his acquisition — but Henrique somehow finds a way.

Henrique’s main skill is putting pucks in the net with regularity and good things happen while he’s on the ice. The last time he had a negative relative goal differential was 2016-17, and only barely so.

That’s usually done in a tough minutes role. Henrique faced the highest opponent quality on the team last year, which is also something to keep in mind, especially given the lack of help in Anaheim. In a lesser role, he may have even more to give.

Henrique may not be an inspiring addition, but at $4.5 million, he delivers.

Alex Wennberg

There’s a good chance Alex Wennberg will get overpaid this summer due in part to the short supply of quality centers available. But there’s a lot of room for that to be an acceptable overpayment given the defensive value he brings to the table.

It’s been a long time since Wennberg provided anything close to top-six-level scoring. Over the last three years, he’s consistently scored fewer than 1.4 points per 60 at five-on-five and hasn’t driven chances well either. Even his usually decent passing ability has fallen off drastically in the last year, with his shot assist rate landing in the 43rd percentile according to Sznajder’s tracking data.

But defensively, few centers can shut opponents down the way he can. He consistently faced some of the toughest competition in the league with Seattle and still maintained above-average defensive impacts in the process. Wennberg is especially good at retrieving pucks and getting them out of his zone.

I’d be worried about giving over $4 million (and term) to someone who has turned into a bit of a black hole offensively. But right now he does make up for that with his defensive aptitude. He would make life easier for a lot of offense-first forwards — something the New York Rangers saw firsthand during their deep playoff run.

Teddy Blueger

Can’t afford Wennberg? Teddy Blueger works as a poor man’s version.

Blueger is not nearly as seasoned against tough competition as Wennberg, but given his work with the Vancouver Canucks last season, there’s reason to believe he can handle a bigger role. He was one-third of Vancouver’s surprisingly dominant checking line with Conor Garland and Dakota Joshua. While more credit belongs to the wingers, Blueger held his own as the pivot on that line. That trio earned 60 percent of the expected goals together.

For a team on a budget that doesn’t exactly need a third-line center to take on tough minutes, Blueger might fit better than Wennberg at a smaller price tag. He also offers a little more offensive efficiency as well, scoring 1.66 points per 60 last season while slightly above average at creating scoring chances. That’s decent for a bottom-six center, a likely product of his strong forecheck ability. Blueger was in the 89th percentile of forechecking recoveries last season.

If Blueger really can be had for under $2 million on a two-year deal as Evolving Hockey suggests, he would make for a very enticing backup plan.

— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL Edge and All Three Zones

(Photo of Sam Reinhart: Derik Hamilton / Associated Press)